Here in Stratford, our local county’s medical officer announced the 53rd confirmed COVID case in the area, warning: “It’s still important, therefore, that everyone assumes COVID-19 is in the community, wherever they are in Huron-Perth, and maintains their vigilance about protecting themselves and their families.” 

Wouldn’t it be wiser to be vigilant about avoiding car accidents, slipping in the shower and flossing out molars?

Perth County has a population of 38,000 and Huron county boasts 59,000. That’s a total of 97,000. So far we’ve had 5 deaths according to Huron Public Health. (And, as I wrote about yesterday, the first death didn’t look much like a SAR-COV-2 death).

As of June 5, 1.8 million Canadians have been tested according to the Public Health Agency of Canada. 94,335 have tested positive. Thus, we have a 5% infection rate (and a testing company making lots of money).

Multiply that 5% infection rate by the 97,000 people living in Huron-Perth County and we can estimate that 4,998 have or had the COVID-19 virus (most without symptoms). 

Five (supposed) deaths out of 4,998 people infected? 

That’s a 0.1% death-to-infection ratio. 

Just like the flu. 

So why must we be vigilant? 

Why should we be “staying home as often as possible and avoiding gatherings of more than five people?”